Author Topic: getting a bit anxious  (Read 4693 times)

ACE

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getting a bit anxious
« on: February 13, 2020, 09:26:37 »
This coronavirus thing is getting a bit more worrying each day. I can't see us getting away with it. I will perish if it gets this far. I will even spray some goods I have on order from china before I handle them. Although I doubt they will even get here now with all the Chinese workers kept at home. Fake news is not helping, this is too important to play games with us but they still do it. I have overheard a conversation about somebody who has sneaked back from China via Hong Kong, how many more got away with that.

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getting a bit anxious
« on: February 13, 2020, 09:26:37 »

Vetivert

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2020, 10:14:38 »
I empathise, it is very concerning. But don't be anxious, be vigilant. It's in the country, the incubation period is 24 days - asymptomatic and contagious during this time. So all goods that arrive at your door have the potential to have been handled by someone unknowingly infected. Post gets left at our door now, opened over a bag and hands washed immediately after handling. We order for delivery from the supermarket rather than go into an area with hundreds of people. Better to deal with one delivery guy and sanitise the packaging.

I'm in Brighton, which is a hotzone right now due to that one guy who picked it up in Singapore. Some schools are closed. Councillors are complaining of lack of info and transparency from Public Health England. I have family who work in the hospital who have overheard some concerning conversations between doctors about lack of info.
The data from the CCP obviously cannot be taken at face value - there's a lot we do not know and it's of course likely to be for the worse, not better. To those who parrot 'it's no worse than flu', I don't recall the last time the Chinese regime disrupted their economy, silenced whistle-blowers, and barricaded citizens in their homes over seasonal flu.

It's frustrating to see some people's blasé view of the situation. It needs us as vectors. Deprive it of hosts. British stiff upper lip and carrying on as normal isn't going to achieve this. Panic isn't warranted but shrugging off basic contagion measures is plain stupid.

Beersmith

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2020, 15:18:11 »
But don't be anxious, be vigilant. It's in the country, the incubation period is 24 days - asymptomatic and contagious during this time.

If you are advising "don't be anxious", it would be better if you did not spread misinformation. The incubation period is not 24 days.  Here is an expert comment from Prof Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine, University of East Anglia (UEA), on the research into incubation periods.

In presenting data on over 1000 cases of 2019 nCoV, Guan and colleagues have done a remarkable job. The suggestion that the incubation period may extend up to 24 days is definitely worrying, especially for people currently in quarantine who may, therefore, expect to spend longer is isolation.

However, the median incubation period remains very short at 3 days. This means that a half of people who will get ill will have developed their illness within 3 days of the initial contact and the proportion of people with the really long incubation periods will be very small. One of the issues with particularly long incubation periods is that it is often very difficult to exclude the possibility that the person had not had a second unrelated contact. Nevertheless, this new information illustrates is concerning and illustrates the need to be continuingly re-evaluating our risk assessments and advice


.
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Vetivert

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2020, 17:47:58 »
Okay, the incubation period may be up to 24 days. I don't think I'm able to edit my post or I would make that correction. But to say I am spreading misinformation is unwarranted; the Guan et al. study you refer to in your comment does suggest that the range is 0 to 24 days.

BarriedaleNick

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2020, 18:52:13 »
You can edit your posts - there should be a modify button in the top right of each post.

I am in Lewisham where someone turned up to our local hospital with the virus - in an Uber!
There was a very interesting article in New Scientist last week about this and how the situation is developing at a daily rate - death rates, incubation periods, transmission etc are a bit variable at the moment and the lack of transparency hasn't helped.
Personally I am not worried as I can't do anything about it so I am just going to carry on doing what I do - unless the situation changes..

ancellsfarmer

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2020, 19:09:10 »
Folks, just relax.
In CHINA, since the first outbreak, 1400 have sadly died of the virus. In the same timespan, in China, approximately 18,000 have died in road traffic accidents. (based on 2017 statistics).
While I would be personally concerned if there were confirmed cases in my area (N E Hampshire), and I think our Government perhaps should be more open with us in relating facts and procedures we might need, it still remains a considerably greater risk of being struck by lightning (1in 33million )  than meeting a virus carrier in the UK.
 Ace, your risk while hidden away on IOW, is indescribably small. Worrying about that slight chance however will be in itself much more harmful IMO
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Beersmith

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2020, 20:43:20 »
Okay, the incubation period may be up to 24 days. I don't think I'm able to edit my post or I would make that correction. But to say I am spreading misinformation is unwarranted; the Guan et al. study you refer to in your comment does suggest that the range is 0 to 24 days.

I stand by my accusation that you were spreading misinformation.

You stated the incubation period was 24 days. You did not explain or elaborate. You stated 24 days as a fact.

The scientific evidence is that the incubation period is variable, but averages around just 3 days, and may in rare cases be as long as 24.

Your original claim was very misleading.
Not mad, just out to mulch!

Obelixx

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #7 on: February 14, 2020, 21:46:46 »
It doesn't really matter does it?  As long as we are all sensible, cover our mouth when we cough or sneeze and wash our hands thoroughly and regularly we won't be spreading germs of either this year's flu or the corona virus.    Even better if we self isolate rather than taking cough/cold/flu/corona virus to work or on the bus/trains/tram/doctor' surgery.

Plain common sense.
Obxx - Vendée France

ACE

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2020, 06:54:20 »
I don't really give a d**n who gets killed by car accidents or gets struck by lightning, The incubation period can be as long as it likes, If you are close by to somebody who does not know they have it, that is enough. Anxious I shall stay, I am not in the best of health so Valhalla beckons on every corner at the moment. Only yesterday as I walked into our little chemist a guy was asking for facemasks as he was just back from Singapore, I turned around pretty rapid and stayed outside until he came out, I mentioned it to the girl behind the counter, she said he had been screened already. So why was he also clutching a box of night nurse?  All the advice, coughing into your arm isolate etc is to stop me spreading it. This is not going to help me stop getting it when people go to health clinics and hospitals in taxis.

Vetivert

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2020, 09:51:37 »
Quote

I stand by my accusation that you were spreading misinformation.

You stated the incubation period was 24 days. You did not explain or elaborate. You stated 24 days as a fact.

The scientific evidence is that the incubation period is variable, but averages around just 3 days, and may in rare cases be as long as 24.

Your original claim was very misleading.

I find it ironic that you're being quite so pedantic about the validity of information in my comments, when you clearly do not uphold that level of editorial scrutiny for your own.
Median and average are not at all the same. By your own standards you are "spreading misinformation" as much as I. But I would not accuse you of such, even with the double-standard, because I take allotment forum sources with a pinch of salt.

Ace, I'd be alarmed too if I had encountered that guy in the chemist. Are you able to shut in at home for while, or do you have to go out often?
I have to go to a busy post office today. Hopefully with Storm Dennis brewing there won't be too many people out and about.
Here's a picture of a sweet little dog fully clothed & masked in Beijing https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/15/coronavirus-cases-pass-66000-as-beijing-orders-14-day-quarantine-for-returnees#img-3

galina

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2020, 09:57:01 »
You can edit your posts - there should be a modify button in the top right of each post.


Mods can, punters cannot alter posts.  If we do not catch a mistake within about an hour, it can no longer be corrected.  This is why I had to ask PKL the other day to sort out a fingertrouble mess of mine.  Thank you for that.   :sunny:

ACE

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2020, 10:28:40 »







 Are you able to shut in at home for while, or do you have to go out often?

Yes I can stay away from people normally, but I have nearly weekly appointments at the clinic and hospital. Also my wife cares for the old and infirm, she has to go out. Not much chance of total isolation even over here. Then if I do get through it there are car crashes, lightning and ordinary flu also waiting to get me.

Obelixx

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2020, 10:34:41 »
Not an optimist then ACE?  Even tho you've come this far without all those potential disasters wiping you out?   
Obxx - Vendée France

ACE

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2020, 11:22:12 »
Not an optimist then ACE?   
should be thankful really, lead a charmed life really. Born a blue baby, shot at by an arab in Aden when I was in navy, countless near misses when riding the old Harley with the boys. Dug out of a deep collapsed hole in the ground. Flu when I was fifty nearly wiped me out. Came through it all only to be so medicated that I think the NHS will cut their losses if I was anyway connected with a Chinese virus.

galina

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2020, 11:23:42 »

 Are you able to shut in at home for while, or do you have to go out often?

Yes I can stay away from people normally, but I have nearly weekly appointments at the clinic and hospital. Also my wife cares for the old and infirm, she has to go out. Not much chance of total isolation even over here. Then if I do get through it there are car crashes, lightning and ordinary flu also waiting to get me.
[/quote]

Not sure what happened there with Vetivert's quote that got attributed to me   :tongue3:
 
From what has been said this new virus is more likely to spread but less likely to kill you than SARS, which I suppose is a small glimmer of hope. 

Stay well Ace, you got a lot of new health problems all of a sudden, but they are all being addressed which  means you are less likely to run into serious strife now than you did before being diagnosed and treated.  This virus is of course on top of general health worries, but people who do not do so well are old, infirm and weak and many live in rural areas where healthcare may be way more basic than IOW.  UK survival statistics are expected to be way more favourable than the 2.4 percent death rate quoted.  You are keeping yourself fit and strong generally, you are not ancient and certainly not weak.  Even if you were to get it, your chances are good.  That guy would have spooked me too.  Chances are, he bought nightnurse for his wife, not for himself and the masks so he would not get her common winter flu while nursing her, but it must have looked alarming. 

I am laid up at the moment with flu despite having had the jab and only one week into the two weeks the doc says it will take to run its course and to isolate myself.  Mind you I am clearly not right and resting for most of the time.  With the miniscule intellectual attention span of a hyperactive toddler when I am awake.

Keep well all of you,  Obelixx got it right, we all use our common sense, do the best we can and hope for the best  :wave:
« Last Edit: February 15, 2020, 11:36:23 by galina »

Tee Gee

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2020, 11:32:56 »
C'mon Ace don't let things get you down! Particularly things like this virus.

As I see it what will be, will be!

I don't want to appear to be complacent but the press are a bit short of "News worthy" stories now that Brexit has more or less run its course, they must find some doom and gloom to write about!

My philosophy over the years has been..... You die if you worry you die if you don't! .... So why worry?

I guess this weather doesn't help either I always feel a bit down at this time of the year, but I always find something to do to get over it!
Get the old squeeze box out and get your feet tapping that might take your mind of your current problems, after all you're only but a lad yet (well compared to me you are!):occasion14:








InfraDig

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #16 on: February 15, 2020, 17:41:34 »
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you.

Joseph Heller.

pumpkinlover

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #17 on: February 16, 2020, 07:57:50 »
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you.

Joseph Heller.

I always thought that was Slartybartfast in Hitchhikers guid to the galaxy! Things you learn on an allotment forum.


Ace I can't say it better than Galina.  I think that there's a lot of wisdom in what she says.

Galina hope you start to feel better soon.
 



gray1720

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #18 on: February 16, 2020, 18:27:44 »
The press are exaggerating coverage for their own agendas anyway - believe what you choose! A tabloid with a record for inacurracy and a name that rhymes with Daily Wail has been reporting that Chinatown in London is deserted owing to fears over the virus. I can tell you that I was there on Friday evening and it was as crowded as ever. Sure, a few more facemasks, and one shop had an NHS guidance notice on its door about coronavirus, but the  Wail's article was (not to put too fine a point on it) a load of bovine ordure.

Yes, we should be concerned, but it's far from the Black Death even if the tabloids want us to believe it is.

Adrian
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cudsey

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Re: getting a bit anxious
« Reply #19 on: February 17, 2020, 18:39:28 »
 Going back to the thought of coronavirus on the 15th Jan I ordered various packets of seeds from Amazon they arrived within a couple of days all except one which was geranium balcony and within a few days an e mail said they had been dispatched and would arrive by the 11th Feb which I thought was a long time they never arrived I kept tracking it and was given different dates  Sat they said to contact seller and then found out they were coming from China I am not sure if I want them now so I did canx them so I now know why they did not arrive but not sure what to do if they should end up in my postbox  I am wondering why geranium seeds have to come China wish I had tried Wilkos
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