I agree - it's worth thinking about what the plant gets out of the arrangement - the plant will do all it can to ripen the seeds and make the pod as attractive to animals as possible.
So if a mature red fruit is wrinkling then either the plant is incredibly dry right through or it has given its best shot and has given up on that fruit.
On the same basis if a green fruit goes wrinkly while it is anywhere near ripeness then the plant is probably dying.
At this time of year I often find the odd weed in the pot is a very good indicator - if a UK weed seedling can survive in the soil then it can't be too dry for a pepper plant - so hold off with the water and you might get less root rot.
I've noticed with Black Hungarian that even picked fruit have a 'mind' of their own in this way - nearly ripe pods seem to try and ripen before rotting, while ripe fruits have to be watched daily.
Cheers
