Topic: Summer 2008 weather forecast

[bupster]

From Metcheck:

Summer Forecast 2008
Added : Sun 6 April : 14:16BST

We read with a mixture of interest and giggles the UK Met Office Summer forecast for 2008 this year.

They expect it to be "Warmer and Wetter than average". However, don't go out without your sun cream and a brolly. Not surprisingly, we had some phone calls from journos during the day asking us what the forecast actually means?

The latest CFS forecast for this summer is now out and our initial reaction is to go with it, however La Nina is likely to cause a few problems with regards to sustained heatwaves this Summer.

Here is the latest forecast for Summer 2008 :-

April : Cooler and drier than average
May : Slightly warmer and drier than average
June : Warmer than average but average rainfall
July : Warmer and drier than average
August : Slightly warmer and wetter than average

So, make of that what you will. Should be a pretty average summer to be honest, but there are no signals that it's likely to be as hot as 2003 or as wet as 2007.

[twinkletoes]

....that'll be because of the global warming then.... ::) ;D
twinkletoes

[bupster]

Finally a normal growing year! Us relative newbies don't know what to do, we're used to t-shirt weather in January and snow in June  :P

[Old bird]

I don't understand how they can tell us all that yet can't tell us from day to day what the weather may be likely to inflict on us!

I understand about gulf streams and El nino (to a degree) but how can them tell us all that - in fact it would be interesting to see how accurate they are - but they have pretty much covered all bases by saying rain, warm, rain, sun, July generally is dry'ish - so what is new!?

It will be interesting to see!

Old Bird

[redimp]

They make no guarantees - its just predictions based on models that have been created using historical data.  At its most simplistic, it predicting future weather using the weather that we have already had by matching it to data in the database.  It'll be far more complicated than that with millions of variables but it isn't that far removed from the sort of thing I posted the other day - there is a strong correllation between dry warm Aprils and cold wet summers (2007) and a strong (but not so strong) correllation between wet cold Aprils and warm dry summers.  They of course factor in things like relative position of the gulf stream, patterns of cyclones and anti-cylones - all plotted and compared to historical data.  It is not an exact science but its reliability will improve the more data they get year on year.

[robkb]

Finally a normal growing year! Us relative newbies don't know what to do, we're used to t-shirt weather in January and snow in June  :P

You're not kidding! This is my third year of growing veg - the first year was nothing but drought and hosepipe bans, and last year I could've grown rice on my so-called allotment. And yes, I was wearing a t-shirt on the plot in January...

Cheers,
Rob ;)

[powerspade]

where is that pinch of salt? O yes there it is,

[ACE]

Get yourself a weather stone, they are foolproof.

Any old rock will do, even a building brick, just hang it on a rope near your door.

How to use= When the stone is wet, it is raining, If it is warm, it is sunny, if it is white it is snowing, if it is swaying, it is windy. Finally if you cannot see it, it is foggy.

                Simple!

I have some spare ones so if you send me your name and address, written on the back of a £20 note, I will send you one.

[lorna]

 ;D ;D @ Ace

[star]

Get yourself a weather stone, they are foolproof.

Any old rock will do, even a building brick, just hang it on a rope near your door.

How to use= When the stone is wet, it is raining, If it is warm, it is sunny, if it is white it is snowing, if it is swaying, it is windy. Finally if you cannot see it, it is foggy.

                Simple!

I have some spare ones so if you send me your name and address, written on the back of a £20 note, I will send you one.

I got one! They are excellent and accurate.........tried selling them, no takers AND they were cheaper than yours ;D ;D ;D ::) ::)