Allotments 4 All

A superintelligence from another galaxy, whom we shall call Omega, comes to Earth and sets about playing a strange little game. In this game, Omega selects a human being, sets down two boxes in front of them, and flies away.

Box A is transparent and contains a thousand dollars.
Box B is opaque, and contains either a million dollars, or nothing.

You can take both boxes, or take only box B.

And the twist is that Omega has put a million dollars in box B iff Omega has predicted that you will take only box B.

Omega has been correct on each of 100 observed occasions so far - everyone who took both boxes has found box B empty and received only a thousand dollars; everyone who took only box B has found B containing a million dollars. (We assume that box A vanishes in a puff of smoke if you take only box B; no one else can take box A afterward.)

Before you make your choice, Omega has flown off and moved on to its next game. Box B is already empty or already full.

Omega drops two boxes on the ground in front of you and flies off.

Do you take both boxes, or only box B?

Newcomb's paradox is one of the most controversial dilemmas in the history of decision theory, ultimately there is no right answer.

i wouldnt cry over spilt milk and would be happy with a grand.  hindsight blah blah...

Presumably Omega left some instructions then along with the boxes telling us the story you just told us??  On that basis, i'd trust Omega and take box B.  No doubt that will make me a moron somewhere along the line, but at least that's my tuppence worth!

Both, of course - I get a grand AND somewhere to store all my seeds.

;D

Put both boxes (if they are cardboard) in the recycling bin.

If it looks too good to be true, it most probably is ??? ???

valmarg

Quote from: kitten on May 20, 2008, 20:26:41
Presumably Omega left some instructions then along with the boxes telling us the story you just told us??  On that basis, i'd trust Omega and take box B.  No doubt that will make me a moron somewhere along the line, but at least that's my tuppence worth!

Yes - but if you trust omega presumably you are banking on the fact that he's put a million in box B. In which case why not take box A aswell - as taking box A cannot change what is already in box B.

That's was my way of thinking too! ;D

Quote from: keef on May 21, 2008, 00:23:16

Quote from: kitten on May 20, 2008, 20:26:41
Presumably Omega left some instructions then along with the boxes telling us the story you just told us??  On that basis, i'd trust Omega and take box B.  No doubt that will make me a moron somewhere along the line, but at least that's my tuppence worth!

Yes - but if you trust omega presumably you are banking on the fact that he's put a million in box B. In which case why not take box A aswell - as taking box A cannot change what is already in box B.

Yes, i'd be expecting a million in box B, but if Omega predicted i'd take both, then he'd have left it empty instead, so i'd still stick to just box B and be done with it!

I would wait until I had come out of my drunken stupor by which time the boxes and Omega will have disappeared from my head!   ;D ;D

Quote from: kitten on May 21, 2008, 19:50:41

Quote from: keef on May 21, 2008, 00:23:16

Quote from: kitten on May 20, 2008, 20:26:41
Presumably Omega left some instructions then along with the boxes telling us the story you just told us??  On that basis, i'd trust Omega and take box B.  No doubt that will make me a moron somewhere along the line, but at least that's my tuppence worth!

Yes - but if you trust omega presumably you are banking on the fact that he's put a million in box B. In which case why not take box A aswell - as taking box A cannot change what is already in box B.

Yes, i'd be expecting a million in box B, but if Omega predicted i'd take both, then he'd have left it empty instead, so i'd still stick to just box B and be done with it!

So you think he predicted you'd only take box B ? In which case its deffinately got a million in it - he cant change what he's already put in the box, so why not take box A aswell ?

My decision to take either of the boxes would be based on the aesthetic appeal of them. If they were both the SAME then I'd take both of them and run away quick. If they were aesthetically different then I'd take them both and run away.

A box with money in it is intrinsically ... a box with money in it! So if you're faced with 2 of them & pick one then you've lost nothing & gained whatever is in the box (es)

The role of Omega in this is arbitrary ... unless Omega chases the person who nicks both boxes and obliterates them with a laser gun etc. But I didn't see any rules set by Omega??

Never trust anyone who's named after a Fatty Acid

Quote from: keef on May 21, 2008, 20:03:09

Quote from: kitten on May 21, 2008, 19:50:41

Quote from: keef on May 21, 2008, 00:23:16

Quote from: kitten on May 20, 2008, 20:26:41
Presumably Omega left some instructions then along with the boxes telling us the story you just told us??  On that basis, i'd trust Omega and take box B.  No doubt that will make me a moron somewhere along the line, but at least that's my tuppence worth!

Yes - but if you trust omega presumably you are banking on the fact that he's put a million in box B. In which case why not take box A aswell - as taking box A cannot change what is already in box B.

Yes, i'd be expecting a million in box B, but if Omega predicted i'd take both, then he'd have left it empty instead, so i'd still stick to just box B and be done with it!

So you think he predicted you'd only take box B ? In which case its deffinately got a million in it - he cant change what he's already put in the box, so why not take box A aswell ?

Yes, as the whole game was based on what Omega predicts each individual will do.  As i'm an inherantly trusting person (doh!) and he's a superintelligence from another galaxy (or whatever it was you said!!) then i predict that he'll predict, correctly, that i'd pick only box b, thereby leaving the cool million in there for me.  Incidentally, i'd hasten to the nearest shoe emporium, incase anyone was wondering...

I'd buy a pub.  Keef knows which one I have in mind ......  ;)