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General => The Shed => Topic started by: ACulham on March 22, 2013, 21:45:55

Title: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: ACulham on March 22, 2013, 21:45:55
The University of Reading and the Royal Horticultural Society are conducting a survey on how gardeners are preparing for climate change and even if they accept it is happening.  It would be enormously helpful if you were willing to complete our survey at http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/crg/climate-change-and-gardening/ (http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/crg/climate-change-and-gardening/).  Some RHS Show tickets are available by prize draw to entrants who wish to leave their contact details.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: daveylamp993 on March 22, 2013, 22:52:25
I have just completed the survey,some very interesting questions,good luck with the survey . . . Ian
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: Paulines7 on March 23, 2013, 01:05:31
I have also completed the survey.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: Digeroo on March 23, 2013, 15:45:19
I am feeling rather confused about climate change, is it getting warmer or colder.  Intesting questions made me think about some of the answers,
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: Aden Roller on March 24, 2013, 00:52:09
Completed survey.

Interesting questions - looking at the published results will be even more interesting.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: winecap on March 24, 2013, 08:05:11
First mention of climate change I've heard in a while. Thought they'd all gone into hiding. Will go right away and complete the survey. You may have guessed I'm sceptical.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: Aden Roller on March 24, 2013, 10:47:14
First mention of climate change I've heard in a while. Thought they'd all gone into hiding. Will go right away and complete the survey. You may have guessed I'm sceptical.

Lots of people still are and it will take a generation or more for "proof in the eating" to show but one sign might me our unusual weather patterns of late. The Gulf Stream has been pushed further northwestwards so no warming currents from the tropics for us.....yet.

Predictions included: Heavy concentrated rainfall , drier seasons either side, lower winter temperatures. Sound familiar?

Notice I missed hotter summers..... they are to come I guess along with much more of the unusual. :sad10:


It's all down to that thicker blanket of carbon-dioxide we're producing over head.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: sunloving on March 24, 2013, 11:18:15
More frequent storms and higher frequency of very bad storms, sea level rise for northern England of 40cm in 50 years.

Its definately been wetter and more stormy. Sea levels at blackpool have risen faster than the predictions so far.

Sunloving
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: Aden Roller on March 24, 2013, 11:29:58
More frequent storms and higher frequency of very bad storms, sea level rise for northern England of 40cm in 50 years.

Its definately been wetter and more stormy. Sea levels at blackpool have risen faster than the predictions so far.

Sunloving

Sea-level rises should be higher in the south of Britain in theory. Isostatic readjustment continues so the north should be (very slowly) bobbing upwards now that the last ice-age has removed all the extra weight. The south should continue to dip as a result.

(Apparently it's like a plank of wood floating on water. Remove a heavy weight from the northen end and it bobs up making the southerly end bob down. Very slow "bobs" mind you! And... set to continue for a few more centuries when the south will bob up and the north has its turn to bob down. Eventually leveling out.)

Then raise the seawater levels and......... down here all of our promenade Victorian open railings have been replaced with solid concrete walls so you can no longer see the beach from the town's seafront road but it does help prevent too much shingle and sea water being washed annually into the shops and restaurants along the front. (It helps a little!)

Climate change? Ba humbug??? Oh right... tell us about it.  :tongue3:  :BangHead:

I believe: This time round not a case of the tooth fairy.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: cornykev on March 24, 2013, 13:44:47
I filled in the survey and good luck with it, but it was all pointed towards tropical weather fronts, since I've had my lottie (8 years) the weather has got colder, more early and late frosts, wetter , shorter Summers, so I'm thinking more ice age or is there a wet age.    :BangHead:       :wave:     :coffee2:
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: RobinOfTheHood on March 24, 2013, 16:52:29

Sea-level rises should be higher in the south of Britain in theory. Isostatic readjustment continues so the north should be (very slowly) bobbing upwards now that the last ice-age has removed all the extra weight. The south should continue to dip as a result.

(Apparently it's like a plank of wood floating on water. Remove a heavy weight from the northen end and it bobs up making the southerly end bob down. Very slow "bobs" mind you! And... set to continue for a few more centuries when the south will bob up and the north has its turn to bob down. Eventually leveling out.)


  :BangHead:

I believe: This time round not a case of the tooth fairy.

Erm, the sea is a liquid, not a plank? And unless gravity is somehow stronger in the north than the south or vice versa then it will level itself, and won't need centuries to do so as the initial change is a slow one, not an explosive event. The tides manage to sort themselves out twice a day, and presumably 'global warming' would affect both poles? If not then it's not global.

Don't you find it a bit strange that almost every year has a record breaking weather event nowadays? Even though I've never seen the Thames freeze, or had snowdrifts to the roofline of my house.


Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: cornykev on March 24, 2013, 17:00:12
I've never seen the thames freeze but it has on 24 occasions, but hey who's counting.   :drunken_smilie:      :wave:
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: RobinOfTheHood on March 24, 2013, 17:07:45
I've never seen the thames freeze but it has on 24 occasions, but hey who's counting.   :drunken_smilie:      :wave:

When the ice was thick enough, frost fairs took place. Years when the ice was thick enough for this to occur were: 1408, 1435, 1506, 1514, 1537, 1565, 1595, 1608, 1621, 1635, 1649, 1655, 1663, 1666, 1677, 1684, 1695, 1709, 1716, 1740, (1768), 1776, (1785), 1788, 1795, and 1814, which was the last frost fair.

Must have been the cow farts.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: Old Central on March 24, 2013, 17:30:03
Hi Robin

Erm, the sea is a liquid, not a plank? And unless gravity is somehow stronger in the north than the south or vice versa then it will level itself, and won't need centuries to do so as the initial change is a slow one, not an explosive event. The tides manage to sort themselves out twice a day, and presumably 'global warming' would affect both poles? If not then it's not global.

This is because it is the land rising after the melting of the ice some 16,000 years ago. As the ice did not reach the south there is little land level adjustment there whereas in the north of Scotland under a lot of ice the unloading is still causing it to rise. It is rather like heave from clay soils. It is the eustatic sea level changes that come from the malting of ice sheets on land, when the North American ice sheet melted global sea level rose by many metres in less than 100 years.

I've filled in the questionnaire as well but agree it is all seems to lead to answers about a hotter climate rather than a more erratic one.

OC
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: chriscross1966 on March 24, 2013, 17:46:19
THere's a massive amount of misunderstanding, especially amongst people who think of themselves as sceptics regarding climate change... mostly they get it confused with weather... unfortunately Britain mostly has weather rather than a climate and most of our climate is defined by a warm current that makes us generally significantly warmer than we would otherwise be this far north.... unfortunately one of the effects of increasing sea-ice melts around the pole will be for a significant disruption of the Gulf Stream.... this will lead to Britain being cooler and with more extreme weather events as the shelter of the Gulf Stream is removed we will see increasing intrusion of continental weather patterns... such as right now when it's too cold to do the things we'd expect to be doing at this stage of March.... For Britain, climate change and global warming won't make us always warmer, but almost certainly occasionally colder, drier, wetter and occasionally warmer...which is why recent years have seen a general filling of the top-ten extremes for just about all categories... wettest months, driest months, etc.... It will make gardening more interesting, there'll be years you can't get a crop off anything tender outdoors, there'll be years when the weather will collude to give you a monstrous glut of tomatoes... or onions....  Rather glad I've got plenty of space to hedge my bets in and a greenhouse big enough to grow a lot of my own tomatoes..... but also, less cold please... I've got almond and peach trees to plant out.... though that said late cold like this might well push the blossom so late that there'll be no chance of frost catching it, I'm predicting a bumper year for soft fruit....
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: Pescador on March 24, 2013, 17:59:02
I got part way through completing it, and then felt that all the questions were assuming it was getting warmer- Med plants, longer seasons etc. Don't think thats the case so pulled out.
Have I missed something?
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: Chrispy on March 24, 2013, 19:20:37
I've never seen the thames freeze but it has on 24 occasions, but hey who's counting.   :drunken_smilie:      :wave:

When the ice was thick enough, frost fairs took place. Years when the ice was thick enough for this to occur were: 1408, 1435, 1506, 1514, 1537, 1565, 1595, 1608, 1621, 1635, 1649, 1655, 1663, 1666, 1677, 1684, 1695, 1709, 1716, 1740, (1768), 1776, (1785), 1788, 1795, and 1814, which was the last frost fair.

Must have been the cow farts.
That's interesting, frost fairs seemed to have come to an end at the beginning of the industrial revolution.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: RobinOfTheHood on March 24, 2013, 19:32:14
Hi Robin

Erm, the sea is a liquid, not a plank? And unless gravity is somehow stronger in the north than the south or vice versa then it will level itself, and won't need centuries to do so as the initial change is a slow one, not an explosive event. The tides manage to sort themselves out twice a day, and presumably 'global warming' would affect both poles? If not then it's not global.

This is because it is the land rising after the melting of the ice some 16,000 years ago. As the ice did not reach the south there is little land level adjustment there whereas in the north of Scotland under a lot of ice the unloading is still causing it to rise. It is rather like heave from clay soils. It is the eustatic sea level changes that come from the malting of ice sheets on land, when the North American ice sheet melted global sea level rose by many metres in less than 100 years.

I've filled in the questionnaire as well but agree it is all seems to lead to answers about a hotter climate rather than a more erratic one.

OC

So if I'm reading you right then Scotland is rising after the weight of the ice has gone from upon it? That would cause the sea to be relatively lower compared to Scotland, and is not sea level rise at all? And after 16,000 years? We hear about the water table being low or high year on year depending on how much rainfall we've had, if a year can make so much difference then why after 16,000 years is the land still rising?

And eustatic - compared to a fixed point - like Scotland which is rising? Nice buzzword anyway, sounds 'scientific'.

Seems to me that a) most people only repeat parrot fashion what we are force fed constantly by all aspects of the media - in this case global warming - and the presented cause - us of course, and
b) all these surveys and such like are mere propaganda to push us down a path of thought or opinion that suits whoever is behind these things. I'll leave you to make your own mind up on that particular one.

Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: RobinOfTheHood on March 24, 2013, 19:35:59
I've never seen the thames freeze but it has on 24 occasions, but hey who's counting.   :drunken_smilie:      :wave:

When the ice was thick enough, frost fairs took place. Years when the ice was thick enough for this to occur were: 1408, 1435, 1506, 1514, 1537, 1565, 1595, 1608, 1621, 1635, 1649, 1655, 1663, 1666, 1677, 1684, 1695, 1709, 1716, 1740, (1768), 1776, (1785), 1788, 1795, and 1814, which was the last frost fair.

Must have been the cow farts.
That's interesting, frost fairs seemed to have come to an end at the beginning of the industrial revolution.



Ok, I'll bite again. The industrial revolution in Britain, you mean? The country that is 81st largest in the world? Try harder, Chris.

EDIT: I'd wager that a single large bush fire in either Australia or America would have equalled or exceeded the CO2 output of the first few years of the industrial revolution, as would a volcanic eruption. Can't tax us for that though can they?
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: Melbourne12 on March 24, 2013, 20:10:27
I got part way through completing it, and then felt that all the questions were assuming it was getting warmer- Med plants, longer seasons etc. Don't think thats the case so pulled out.
Have I missed something?

That's clearly what they want, so that they can report, "99% of gardeners are terrified of the effects of global warming, shock, horror!"

Back in the 1960s we were promised a new Ice Age by the climatologists.  Glaciers down to Hadrian's Wall by 2000, London by 2010.  I'll believe in global warming after I've had my promised Ice Age.  :sunny:
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: Chrispy on March 24, 2013, 20:38:33
I've never seen the thames freeze but it has on 24 occasions, but hey who's counting.   :drunken_smilie:      :wave:

When the ice was thick enough, frost fairs took place. Years when the ice was thick enough for this to occur were: 1408, 1435, 1506, 1514, 1537, 1565, 1595, 1608, 1621, 1635, 1649, 1655, 1663, 1666, 1677, 1684, 1695, 1709, 1716, 1740, (1768), 1776, (1785), 1788, 1795, and 1814, which was the last frost fair.

Must have been the cow farts.
That's interesting, frost fairs seemed to have come to an end at the beginning of the industrial revolution.



Ok, I'll bite again. The industrial revolution in Britain, you mean? The country that is 81st largest in the world? Try harder, Chris.

EDIT: I'd wager that a single large bush fire in either Australia or America would have equalled or exceeded the CO2 output of the first few years of the industrial revolution, as would a volcanic eruption. Can't tax us for that though can they?
Did I say it was anything to do with global CO2 levels? Of course not, as I can't see that being the cause.
Local pollution, migration into cities are a couple if possible expansions, could just be a coincidence.

I just noticed something new, and I am interested and want to know more.
That's is why I am interested in climate change, and try to learn and understand while you just seem to think it is some sort of conspiracy.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: OllieC on March 24, 2013, 21:09:04
Some of you are more patient than me - I read a bit of waffle, told it how old I was, what my postcode is, whether I was a boy or a girl gardener and then thought, "Don't be so nosey" so quit. We'll cope anyway, won't we? I thought gardening was just about choosing a plant that might work and tipping the odds in it's favour.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: galina on March 25, 2013, 03:36:39
I am feeling rather confused about climate change, is it getting warmer or colder.  Intesting questions made me think about some of the answers,

Both - warmer air carries more water and drives more wind and weather systems.  Result more unpredictable weather with more extremes.  Something is disturbing our 'normal' Jet Stream pattern - less predictable - more extremes see above.  Severe gales during summer.

Ice cap melting means less salt in the sea.  For some reason I don't quite understand this salt content is a driver of the Gulf Stream, which keeps the sea around us warmer than normal.  If this weakens or stops, then we are in for severe Canadian type winters.

It is complicated.  We need more good weather programmes on the box.  There were a few on Channel 4.  When they do another one, it is worth looking out for.  Their programmes have explained the changes for me without alarm or propaganda.

Survey done too.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: chriscross1966 on March 25, 2013, 04:17:11
I got part way through completing it, and then felt that all the questions were assuming it was getting warmer- Med plants, longer seasons etc. Don't think thats the case so pulled out.
Have I missed something?

That's clearly what they want, so that they can report, "99% of gardeners are terrified of the effects of global warming, shock, horror!"

Back in the 1960s we were promised a new Ice Age by the climatologists.  Glaciers down to Hadrian's Wall by 2000, London by 2010.  I'll believe in global warming after I've had my promised Ice Age.  :sunny:

What's frightening about ice ages is that we were so wrong about how fast they start.... each time they manage to ramp up the resolution on the ice core samples they realise it happens quicker than they can spot....  the last time I heard the resolution was under five years and that is the speed to go from interglacial warm to  ice down to London... now the smart money seems to be on a single event triggering a tipping point and it happens in a single season where winter just keeps on coming... fluctuations in the gulf stream caused by fresh water dumping into the top of the "pump".... the bit where salty water gets very cold and sinks near Greenland ... a couple that they've unravelled from the geology etc was a serious rupture of an ice sheet near Greenland melting one summer, and at least one (The Younger Dryas) has been linked to the catastrophic draining event of Lake Agassiz....
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: ACulham on March 29, 2013, 09:05:46
Thanks for all the comments on this thread.  I'd like to pull out a few key points:
1) Climate models predict greater extremes in future so, over short periods, it is expected to get colder.  At present we are in the cool part of the 11 year solar cycle.
2) We've done our best to give everyone an opportunity to express their opinions.  If you don't think climate will change there are many options to say this and we do want to hear ALL views.
3) Sea level - is measurably rising on a global scale but locally can be falling relative to land - see http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/index.shtml
4) CO2 levels are rising and are plotted against time at http://co2now.org/
5) The hope from this survey is to get a real idea of what gardeners are doing or feel they need to to do in response to claims that the climate is changing.  That answer might be 'nothing' or 'i'll wait and see'.  My allotment is currently under water so raised beds are part of my plan to deal with more frequent climate extremes.

Thanks to the many of you who have already completed the survey but do ask your friends too - we need all the data we can get!
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: ACulham on March 29, 2013, 22:09:51
Some of you are more patient than me - I read a bit of waffle, told it how old I was, what my postcode is, whether I was a boy or a girl gardener and then thought, "Don't be so nosey" so quit. We'll cope anyway, won't we? I thought gardening was just about choosing a plant that might work and tipping the odds in it's favour.
I'm sorry you found this too nosey.  The questions are optional so you can choose not to answer those however gender and age data help tell us whether there is a pattern to belief or not in climate change and whether experience helps adapt to new weather.  The postcode allows us to map responses against local climate rather than UK wide - I would not expect a gardener in Norwich to be experiencing the same patterns of climate as those in Truro or Dundee.  The questionnaire does take a while to complete but gardeners are generally patient people.  Thanks at least for trying the survey.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: Digeroo on March 30, 2013, 10:12:54
When I was at school the next ice age was looming, then it is global warming. 

All we need is a huge volcanic eruption somewhere in the world and things might change overnight.   Several are overdue.  After the icelandic one we have had a set of cold winters.   
http://syzygyastro.hubpages.com/hub/The-Little-Ice-Age

Then it was global warming.   Now it is climate change.   

I have lived through bobby socks winters, the winter of 62/62, summer of 76, floods if 07, the non summer of 86 etc etc.  I am a sceptic.  But I do think we need to be more careful what we do to the planet and building more nuclear power stations is for me a disaster waiting to happen.  And using climate change as an excuse for building them is for me very wrong.

As for allotmenting I will continue to face the challenges as they happen. 
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: OllieC on March 30, 2013, 10:54:31
Some of you are more patient than me - I read a bit of waffle, told it how old I was, what my postcode is, whether I was a boy or a girl gardener and then thought, "Don't be so nosey" so quit. We'll cope anyway, won't we? I thought gardening was just about choosing a plant that might work and tipping the odds in it's favour.
I'm sorry you found this too nosey.  The questions are optional so you can choose not to answer those however gender and age data help tell us whether there is a pattern to belief or not in climate change and whether experience helps adapt to new weather.  The postcode allows us to map responses against local climate rather than UK wide - I would not expect a gardener in Norwich to be experiencing the same patterns of climate as those in Truro or Dundee.  The questionnaire does take a while to complete but gardeners are generally patient people.  Thanks at least for trying the survey.

Interesting. I moved from Guildford to North of Inverness last year so you would be getting an opinion formed in Guildford showing up in a Highlands postcode - so probably not helpful anyway.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: picman on March 30, 2013, 12:41:06
Can I have a pene'th , The Romans grew grapes in the North of England back in the year 500 ...   
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: green lily on March 30, 2013, 21:12:49
I've done the survey. A bit concerned how it concentrated on the leisure industry rather than the food stability issues.....
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: ACulham on April 01, 2013, 21:06:19
Some of you are more patient than me - I read a bit of waffle, told it how old I was, what my postcode is, whether I was a boy or a girl gardener and then thought, "Don't be so nosey" so quit. We'll cope anyway, won't we? I thought gardening was just about choosing a plant that might work and tipping the odds in it's favour.
I'm sorry you found this too nosey.  The questions are optional so you can choose not to answer those however gender and age data help tell us whether there is a pattern to belief or not in climate change and whether experience helps adapt to new weather.  The postcode allows us to map responses against local climate rather than UK wide - I would not expect a gardener in Norwich to be experiencing the same patterns of climate as those in Truro or Dundee.  The questionnaire does take a while to complete but gardeners are generally patient people.  Thanks at least for trying the survey.

Interesting. I moved from Guildford to North of Inverness last year so you would be getting an opinion formed in Guildford showing up in a Highlands postcode - so probably not helpful anyway.
That's why we have the free text comments boxes  :happy7:  Inverness is predicted more average change than Guildford.
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: ACulham on April 01, 2013, 21:15:57
I got part way through completing it, and then felt that all the questions were assuming it was getting warmer- Med plants, longer seasons etc. Don't think thats the case so pulled out.
Have I missed something?
I guess you didn't get to "26 a. Climate change is only hypothetical, changing garden practices are of little use" or "45.  Do you think climate change is happening?". 
Title: Re: Your views on Climate Change impacts in gardening sought.
Post by: ACulham on April 01, 2013, 21:22:32
I am feeling rather confused about climate change, is it getting warmer or colder.  Intesting questions made me think about some of the answers,
Thanks, and very understandable questions about whether it is getting warmer or colder.  Models for the future suggest more extreme events but on average summers of the 2003 kind are expected to be commonplace by 2050.  The problem is that we experience weather (which is hard to predict over more than a few days) but the changes are in climate (which is average values over a longer period and can be modelled quite well) and may take years to be really noticeable.  Our cold and wet year is part of the expected extreme events and link to solar and gulf stream patterns.
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