Topic: weather ponderings and metcheck question

[legless]

do you think we're a month behind weather wise? taxi driver last night reckons we are.....

and metcheck, this new frost predictor thing. would you wait until 0% chance of frost to plant out tender plants? do you think that would happen? if not what percentage chance would you risk?

[moonbells]

I calculated 27 days by the flowering of my narcissi.  I've been recording their flowering dates for some years, and this is the latest spring by some measure.

I will stick for last frost as per usual - end May/start June. 

moonbells

[Flowertot]

Going by my daffs - yes we are about a month behind.  They were in full bloom on St Davids Day last year but have only just opened this year.

[euronerd]

Hi legless, I'm not sure what the answer is. Metcheck apparently has the best record for accuracy but I suppose they'll play safe, possibly being a bit pessimistic about temperatures. I love the site though. Makes you wonder what you get with the paid subscription.

I don't know what it's like where you live, but with the lumpy geography here in yorkshire, my own postcode covers me at nearly 1,000 feet, windswept and rainsoaked, and also a warm shaded valley 600ft lower a couple of miles away so it might be worth taking an average of your postcode's topography if yours is similar. After all that, I think I'm tempted to wait. Things seem to catch up anyway if you plant late.

Geoff.

[aquilegia]

My toad spawn was two weeks later this year than last. But I've only been recording it for two years! My broadies are way behind last year (they were flowering this time last year).

I would not just go on the frost forecast - low temperatures, I think even below 5C can damage some tender plants. I've got a very sheltered garden in greater london, but would wait until at least mid-May to harden things off. (although this year I reckon it will be later).

[robsa]

Can someone explain to me how the FrostRisk prediction works on metcheck?

It gives you percentage chance of air frost and ground frost - but which is worse? Also, it doesn't seem to tie up with the temperature predictions for the same day. e.g it gives a 100% risk of air frost tomorrow at 15:00 hours but the temperature at that time is 9degC.

I'm confused?  ???

Robsa

[tim]

Watch out for the sun tomorrow evening!! In the Cotswolds, at least.



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